Lege Artis Medicinae

[Future images of health care]

MATOS Lajos1

SEPTEMBER 25, 1991

Lege Artis Medicinae - 1991;1(15)

[The aim of this paper is to summarize techniques and goals of health futurology. Future can be approached by two ways: one of them is the descriptive technique by which a whole range of future images can be described to make the proper plan. Descriptive methods include trend analysis, extrapolation, modelling and scenario development. In the prescriptive approach a vision of preferable future is created, considering expectable society processes as well as scientific and technical development to put forward reasonable ways to the preferable future. Future images can be categorized as possible, plausible, probable and preferable ones. To set up alternative future images health scenario writing is more and more popular. These can be classified as exploratory, strategic and resource allocation scenarios. The scenario project on cardiovascular diseases and on cancer in the Netherlands are reviewed as a good example. Futurology is concerned to be a way of thinking on the future and not simply predicting it.]

AFFILIATIONS

  1. főorovs Országos Kardiológiai Intézet Klinikai Farmakológiai Részleg

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